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- Jesse Redmond MSO earnings season starts this week, with eight of the top ten US operators reporting. Consensus analyst expectations are for the top ten MSOs to show a Q/Q 2.62% contraction in revenue and adjusted EBITDA to decline 6.18%. (1/3)The top ten MSOs' Y/Y revenue is expected to grow by 3.20%, and AEBITDA is expected to expand by 17.30%. Analysts predict the highest Y/Y revenue growth for Ascend Wellness Holdings (CSE: AAWH.U / OTCQX:AAWH) at +22.40%, and Cresco Labs is predicted to have the best Y/Y improvement in AEBITDA at +62.00%.Finally, here are some of the companies reporting this week: May 7: Ascend Wellness Holdings (CSE: AAWH.U / OTCQX:AAWH)May 8: Green Thumb Industries (GTI), Verano, MariMed, Inc. May 9: Curaleaf, Trulieve, TerrAscend, Cannabist, Jushi Holdings Inc.Source: FactSet 7 2 Comments
- Poh-Heng Tan Monitor: US BSL CLO New Issue Arb Trend Since 2017The median arbitrage metric YTD at 195 bps is actually lower than in both 2022 and 2023, but this year’s new issue volume has already far exceeded the past two years’ volume on an annualized basis. Similarly, 2018-vintage deals had the lowest median arbitrage metric at 191 bps, but 2018 was a record-breaking year for new issue #CLO volume at the time. On the other hand, 2020-vintage deals had the best median arbitrage metric at 243 bps, but their new issue volume was the lowest.If you’re interested in learning more about the premium content or would like a walkthrough of the website via Zoom, please don’t hesitate to email me at info@clopremium.co.uk.https://lnkd.in/e6sUTfjw 3
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- Andrew Beer A pleasure to join Alan Dunne, CFA on the Top Traders Unplugged podacst!Fun discussing:1. The absurd dichotomy of replication vs “real” #hedgefunds given a heterogeneous investor base with wildly different preference functions.2. The uncomfortable evidence that *certain* #cta #etfs seem to be doing better than #hedgefunds - a sharp contrast to the liquid alternative trainwreck in most other #hedgefund strategies.3. How #bonds went from Superman to the Voldemort of the #assetallocation world: the #diversification argument has fallen apart this decade and no one is really talking about it.Other tidbits:- Some discussion of other hedge funds, like Millennium, Bridgewater Associates and Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.- Shout outs to Corey Hoffstein, Kathryn Kaminski, PhD, CAIA, Bob Elliott, Simplify and other pioneers in the ETF space.- High praise for Man AHL and their #mutualfund.- Appreciative use of data from Morningstar and Wilshire on the liquid alts world.Enjoy! Subscribe! Be merry! 38 2 Comments
- Jim Caron New Whitepaper from Caron's Corner: In this paper we discuss new management techniques required to capture higher returns in a higher inflation regime. A new market regime is upon us catalyzed by rising inflation risks. This presents a challenge to investors seeking to compound returns at target levels with stability because it increases correlation risks. Effectively, it pushes the efficient frontier inwards and reduces risk-adjusted return potential. In this paper, we explain how we counter this adverse impact to returns in this new regime through a new management approach with the goal of achieving stable target returns. https://mgstn.ly/3QNuw0f 28
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- Andrew Beer Do positive stock-bond correlations kill the case for #hedgefunds? Using PivotalPath data, the bubble chart below shows the correlation of various #hedgefund strategies to #stocks (horizontal axis) and #bonds (vertical axis) -- scaled by current AUMs. Most strategies are, and have always been, positively correlated to #equities but with lower #volatility. Hence, when stock-bond correlations were negative, hedge funds overall could be positioned as a fixed income substitute, something I wrote about in 2021: https://lnkd.in/endwxVaQWhen stock-bond correlations flip to positive, though, most hedge fund strategies will have high correlation to BOTH stocks and bonds. The data below covers both negative and positive regimes. Assuming positive is the New Normal (see research from AQR Capital Management, Verdad Advisers and others), most bubbles will gradually slide down to the lower left -- not a good place to be. Of course, an astute allocator might notice that the #macro and #cta bubbles are quietly floating on the upper right -- the #diversification sweet spot. Maybe it's time to pump those up and deflate the others? 88 11 Comments
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